On Belarus, II
The country is in its 7th day of protests over a contested election, with the largest gathering set to take place this weekend.
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In short, the situation has developed rapidly in Belarus. The country is currently in its seventh day of protests following the contested presidential election last Sunday, and it appears that those protesting Lukashenko’s proclaimed 80% victory over Svetlana Tikhanovskaya have been considerably bolstered by the support of industrial workers participating in country-wide strikes. This has served as an effective counterbalance, at least partially, to Lukashenko’s continued control over the country’s security services
Earlier in the week, Russiabot wrote that protests outside of the country’s major urban areas may fizzle out, particularly due to the highly publicized brutality of the authorities’ response to the rallies (Navalny, in his weekly youtube stream, highlighted how it is likely police are very intentionally not obfuscating their violence against protestors). This has not been the case, and video continues to hit social media of rallies taking place across the country, including in localities with smaller population densities.
I believe that organized labor’s public support of the opposition, and the presence of industrial workers on the streets, has reinforced the vigor of the movement against the Lukashenko government. This is an especially interesting phenomenon largely because labor unions have been historically dominated by the government –earning Belarus global criticism for violating workers’ rights—and Lukashenko’s domestic image has been largely constructed as a ‘common working man’ (lest we forget Lukashenko’s “tractors and hard work will cure all” response to the COVID-19 Pandemic). Employees of ten major enterprises have joined the nationwide call to strike, including the Minsk Electrotechnical Plant, The Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant, and the Minsk Automobile Plant. Perhaps the most critical blow to Lukashenko’s rule is the ongoing strike by employees of BelAZ -a major manufacturer of heavy equipment serving global markets— which puts the government at odds with the employees of the country’s crown jewel of industry.
Svetlana Tikhanovskaya made her first public appearance following a departure from Belarus still shrouded in mystery. Speaking from Lithuania, Tikhanovskaya called on the mayors of Belarusian cities to organize peaceful protests for August 15th and 16th. With or without the support of local leadership, protestors have heeded her call, and mass demonstrations have continued across the country. Perhaps the most iconic moment came from yesterday’s rallies, where employees of Minsk Tractor Works led groups of protestors to the country’s National Assembly building. Riot police protecting the building lowered their shields as a sign of non-aggression, dissipating the tension coloring many of the week’s interactions between dissatisfied civilians and the authorities.
Although there are widely publicized instances of police joining ranks with the opposition, as well as the social media trend of Spetsnaz throwing away their uniforms, its critical to highlight that there has not been an organized defection anywhere near the scale of 1991, where a Soviet battalion refused to fire on protestors in Moscow, thus halting the revisionist coup against Gorbachev. The NEXTA telegram channel, which has been organizing rallies across the country—warned protestors that any de-escalation by authorities could easily swing in the opposite direction. A fund has been established to provide financial assistance to police/security service employees who make the decision to break ranks.
With the situation clearly growing more difficult for Lukashenko’s government, it appears the Belarusian President may be making early concessions to Russia, particularly highlighted by his release of the 32 alleged mercenaries detained by Belarus a few weeks back. In a public address, Lukashenko underscored that Russia’s support could be necessary, issuing a reminder that the two countries are still paired in a ‘Union State’ arrangement.
I’ll highlight here that this in no way guarantees that the Kremlin will provide any sort of counter-protest support to Lukashenko. Relations have been strained between Minsk and Moscow for some time, particularly as Lukashenko has equally blamed ‘Russian interference’ (among Polish, Czech, and British efforts) to destabilize the country in advance of the election. Although President Putin was one of the first to publicly congratulate Lukashenko on his election victory last week, Moscow does have a history of shifting support to an opposition candidate. This exact situation played out in Armenia in 2018, where Putin’s early congratulations for the incumbent President turned into later support for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
The Opposition in Belarus is calling for a cross-country rally on Sunday, August 16 – which may just become the largest the country has seen since counter-Lukashenko demonstrations began.
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