Russiabot Newsletter 9 [01.14.2021]
Navalny Comes Home, Mass Vaccinations for COVID-19 Commence, MinFin to Weaken the Ruble, Greeks Storm a Russian Ship, and a Mass Poisoning Breaks out in Dagestan
The 9th Russiabot Newsletter
Thursday, January 14th, 2021
Good morning.
Today, the global Orthodox Christian community celebrates the “Old New Year” - per the Julian calendar. As I missed the opportunity to wish you all a happy new year, let me express the warmest wishes for 2021!
It’s going to be an interesting year for the former-USSR beat, namely, with Russian legislative elections taking place in September of this year. This puts 450 State Duma seats up for grabs, which could theoretically challenge the continued dominance of the United Russia (UR) Party in the country’s legislature.
We see the early ripples of some trends that will undoutably impact this election in today’s newsletter.
Namely, the return of Alexey Navalny to Russia this Sunday. Navalny’s team organized a “smart voting” strategy in the 2018 Moscow Duma elections (i.e. vote for anybody BUT the UR candidate), which did slightly increase the success of non-UR candidates in local showings, and generally annoyed the hell out of the governing party. Navalny’s team has had some time to refine this tactic, and with the additional media attention the anti-corruption activist has recieved in recent months could bolster his efforts to undermine UR’s performance next Fall. Regardless, it remains to be seen exactly what the government plans to do with Navalny when he flies in to Moscow on Sunday. This is worth watching, as Navalny is calling on supporters to meet him at the air port, while the authorities have announced intentions to arrest the activist on a number of charges.
The apparent early success of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine will also improve the political capital of UR coming into this election, and with mass vaccinations announced for next week, this will be a win for the governing party if successfully administered. Although, there are already reports of vaccine doses failing to arrive at their intended destination…so it still remains to be seen just how effective the mass vaccination camapaign will be. But, this is a win for the government.
Anyways, I hope 2021 brings you all good things, we have certainly all earned it.
Stay well,
RB.
Here are the latest headlines circulating in Russia:
Despite Risk of Arrest, Alexey Navalny Will Come Home
Mass Vaccinations Against COVID-19 to Begin in Russia
Russia’s Finance Ministry of Weaken the Ruble
Greek Forces “Visit” Russian Vessel in the Mediterranean
A Mass Poisoning in Dagestan?
1. Despite Risk of Arrest, Alexey Navalny Will Come Home
Russian opposition leader and anti-corruption activist Alexey Navalny announced that he will return to Russia on Sunday, January 17th, likely facing arrest upon his arrival as a consequence of multiple pending legal actions by various Russian law enforcement entities.
Navalny has been recovering in Berlin’s Charité Hospital since August of last year, following a poisoning attempt by what is believed to be a Novichok nerve agent. Navalny maintains that Russian security services had made the attempt on his life, an allegation which received significant international attention following a joint investigation by Navalny’s anti-corruption foundation, CNN, The Insider, Bellingcat, and Der Spiegel. This culminated in the activist live-streaming a phone call with one of his accused hit men.
Back in Russia, the anti-corruption activist faces legal action which will likely result in Navalny’s arrest upon crossing Russian customs.
As of last December, Navalny is wanted by Russia’s Federal Penitentiary Service over his failure to appear before court over details surrounding charges in the 2012 Yves-Rocher Case, where the Russian government accused Navalny of laundering some 55 million rubles (~$745,000) from the eponymous company. The anti-corruption activist was sentenced to a suspended sentence of three years, which the Russian Government now wants re-instated. Navalny maintains that the Yves-Rocher case was politically motivated.
Similarly, as of last December, Alexey Navalny faces charges of fraud by Russia’s Central Investigative Committee, surrounding allegations that donations raised by Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation were inappropriately used to pay for Navalny’s treatment at the Charité Hospital, one of Germany’s most renown medical institutions.
Navalny will arrive at Moscow’s Vnukovo Airport at 7:20PM local time on Sunday. In a tweet announcing his return to Russia, the anti-corruption activist called on followers to “meet” him at the airport. Considering the possibility of a police presence, this sets the stage for a tense standoff with the authorities.
Opposition politician Ilya Yashin appeared on TVRain this morning, bringing up a few interesting points to consider: the Russian authorities will likely try to avoid the fiasco of directly jailing Navalny, and could opt for a less confrontational detainment, such as a period of house arrest without access to internet. Yashin noted that this could be accomplished by a re-routing Navalny’s airline to a neighboring airport —under the guise of bad weather or technical difficulties —to avoid direct confrontation with the activist’s supporters.
(Lenta, Lenta, The Bell, Echo)
2. Russia to Begin Mass Vaccinations Against COVID-19
The Russian Government announced that mass vaccination of the population against COVID-19 using the Sputnik V vaccine will begin January 18th. This comes following initial rounds of vaccinations last month, where some 1.5 million medical workers, teachers, social workers, and other essential segments of the population having been inoculated at the time of writing.
Between January 11th and 14th, some 600,000 doses of Sputnik V are expected to be distributed throughout the country, with the ultimate target of 2.1 million vaccines to be delivered by the end of the month.
Russian sociologists suggest that the country faces similar hurdles in administering vaccines as in other countries, namely, mass production, delivery logistics, trained medical staff, and securing public trust in the vaccine itself.
Access to Sputink V has further underscored certain difficulties in establishing supply chains across the Russian landmass, with large urban centers such as Moscow and Saint Petersburg reporting a relative ease of access, while other localities such as Chelyabinsk, Omsk, and Perm, report shortfalls in access to the treatment.
Concerns over logistical disruption are also present. In the Vologda region, mass vaccination was postponed past the established date due to the vaccines simply not arriving at their intended location.
The Sputnik V vaccine was produced by Gamaleya Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology last August, earning the Russian government both the status as the first producer of an anti-COVID vaccine, but also international scrutiny over the rushed production timelines of the treatment; preliminary data on phase III trials only published last month by Gamaleya, indicating a 91.4% efficacy rate.
50 countries —including Mexico, Brazil, India, South Korea, and Hungary — have requested supplies of Sputnik V.
Since the start of the pandemic, Russia’s population has endured 3.4 million cases of COVID-19, reporting some 62,000 deaths.
See Also:
As part of our twisted era of brands on social media, Sputnik V has a twitter page, I’m assuming to talk shit on other vaccines.
The report of a New York Times writer — “Why I Got the Russian Vaccine — on recieving a dose of Sputnik V.
3. Russia’s Finance Ministry to Weaken the Ruble
In anticipation of increased oil revenue in the coming month, the Russian Ministry of Finance announced that it will weaken the Ruble by a mass purchase of foreign currency starting on January 15th, until February 14th. The government plans to spend some 106.5 billion rubles (~$1.4 million) during this period of time.
These sorts of government actions increase demand for foreign currency, which strategically devalues the ruble. This is in accordance with the state budget code, where the Ministry of Finance must weaken the ruble if oil prices are expected to exceeded the anticipated value estimated by the annual federal budget, and strengthen the ruble in the event oil prices dip below an expected level.
The Ministry of Finance previously completed a similar buying campaign ten months ago, leveraging resources from the National Wealth Fund to do so.
Like many global markets, the Russian economy endured a tumultuous year as a consequence of the coronavirus pandemic, exacerbated by increased unemployment and falls in oil revenue critical to the state budget.
The ruble currently trades at about 73.56 to the dollar, an almost 20% collapse from this time last year.
(Lenta, MinFin, Interfax, Lenta)
4. Greek Forces “Visit” Russian Vessel in the Mediterranean
Greek Naval Forces deployed from the Adrias frigate boarded a Russian cargo vessel in the Mediterranean in what was called the “63rd friendly visit” of Operation Irini, an ongoing joint-European naval campaign targeting the illicit shipment of weapons to Libya. The NATO-member forces were operating as part of a greater United Nations arms embargo on Libya, where a civil war has been raging since the toppling of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.
Crew from the Adler —owned by Saint Petersburg-based NB Shipping Company — reported that Greek forces boarded the ship via helicopter, and performed an inspection of the vessel to find no weapons or other illicit items on board.
The inspection of the Adler sparked different responses in Russia’s state Duma, with some representatives calling this an outright provocation by NATO, while others underscored that that this was a routine inspection by the forces of a country friendly with the Russian Federation.
As of 2014, Russia openly backs the Libyan National Army (LNA), a faction of the Civil War controlling the majority of the country’s East from the coastal city of Tobruk. Despite additional support from France, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, the LNA has not been successful in decisively turning the tide of the War, and failed to capture the internationally recognized capital of Tripoli in an offensive last year.
The United States accused Moscow last spring of directly supporting the LNA through the provision of military aircraft and mercenaries to the embattled faction. Moscow denies these claims, and attests to a strict adherence to the international arms embargo.
The Medditeranean Sea in recent months has become a sensitive operating region for NATO forces, particularly as relations between the United States and Turkey are increasingly frought as a consequence of Turkey’s purchase of advanced defensive systems from Russia, and Ankara’s controvertial backing of Azerbaijan in the War in Karabakh last Fall. This is in addition to renewed tensions between Turkey and Greece —both NATO members— over territorial disputes in the Eastern Medditeranean.
5. A Mass Poisoning in Dagestan?
More than 100 people have sought medical treatment in the town of Buynaksk in the Republic of Dagestan, located in the foothills of the Greater Caucasus in Russia.
All patients —including more than 60 children — demonstrated symptoms of an acute intestinal infection, with 85 individuals requiring hospitilization. Infections have spread to a local boarding school, prompting officials to express concern over the continued spread of the poisoning.
Contaminated tapwater is being examined by authorities as a possible cause.
The use of local tap water is now prohibited in this town of 65,000, and daycares have been closed until the issue is resolved. Local authorities dispatched water carriers across the community to provide relief to the population.
Dagestan faced a simmilar water-borne intestinal infection last year, when hundreds of people fell ill in the northern town of Kizlyer after dirnking contaminated tapwater. This prompted a criminal case against the management of a local pumping station, something which will likely occur in this instance of poisoning in Buynaksk as well.
(Interfax, RIA Dagestan, 1TV, iZ)